While India continues to battle Chinese virus, China has sought to impose one more cost. For the first time in nearly 45 years, there are casualties in the border conflict between India and China. Three army personnel including a Colonel manning an infantry battalion have been killed in action in the Galwan Valley. There are reports of Chinese mortalities though no confirmation about the number has come. The fragile peace that has persisted on the border is finally over. The way, the latest border clashes evolved in late April and early May, it was only to be expected of an escalation in the conflict. It would have been difficult for the commanding officers to restrain the soldiers from ensuing armed clashes. The restraint has been finally been broken. The standoff will now shift to the possible Indian responses to the changed and tense scenario.
Indian response to Pakistani violations on the Line of Control (LoC) has followed a time tested pattern. Most of the provocations are responded to through a retribution of a similar degree. There have been acts of terrorisms that tested India’s mettle but India normally resisted from escalating. To many, it was apparent that Pakistan was testing the Broken Windows theory. Since any Indian response was deemed meek or localised, it implied a sign of weakness. India, it was believed lacked the gumption to escalate for fear of casualties. The chain was finally broken through the surgical strike across the border post Uri attack in 2016. India’s willingness to escalate was visible again post Pulwama attacks when India responded with Balakot air strikes.
China too has tested India time and again on the Broken Windows. Each time, Indian response has been to downplay the event. China virtually was unchallenged as it sought to change the ground position in Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and even Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. India demonstrated a strong hold out in Dolam but that was more of tactical victory. India’s strategy on China seemed to avoid casualties, downplay Chinese aggressive moves, seek to resolve through negotiations, strong resolve in holding the ground and be content with tactical victories. The Galwan clash resulting in mortality in all likelihood is a signal for an end to its strategy. In the absence of response of equal proportions, China will only be further emboldened.
It is just not about China being emboldened for more misadventures. It is about a signal that we send to the rest of the world. India is an aspiring superpower and seeks a place in global power high table. Yet these positions do not come for free. There has to be demonstration of the intent to be a superpower and convey actions that resemble one. Instance could be the superpower is normally responsible for the provision of global public goods or the global security provider. If India has to emerge as net security provider, create a space for itself in the Indo-Pacific from Suez to Fiji, then India must, through its actions, convey its ability and willingness to act and demonstrate as superpower.
India’s reluctance to act could send very different messages to the rest of the world. China for instance will not only act more aggressively but with the knowledge that is unlikely to face any major punitive action. In fact, as China is cornered over its export of virus, it needs to find an outlet for escape. If India is going to be made a frontline against China, nothing would be better for it than showing India’s reluctance or deemed cowardice. Irrespective of India’s reasons for non-action, it would be deemed as someone not capable of standing up to the bully beyond a point. In the context, India’s position in the Quad could be under threat. It would be highly unlikely that US, or for that matter EU, Japan. ASEAN, Australia would take India seriously in the defence calculus. They might assign India to a secondary or supportive role than that of an equal. If India is content of allowing Chinese encroachments, why should they bother? India has a greater skin in the game than anybody else. China would not want to allow India to run away with a prize through shifting of economic base from China to India. It will go all out including a possible war, something of 1962 to humiliate India and show the world the alleged cowardice or weakness.
At this moment, Europe is too deep into Chinese quagmire and so does South Asia. Australia and US are trying to wriggle out of the Chinese bear hugs. India resisted OBOR but as mentioned above India’s ability to escalate is still untested. In fact if India shows its meekness, the message in the South Asian region would be unambiguous. If India cannot protect itself, countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, Bhutan, Myanmar all will perhaps try and create their own arrangements with China. It would be a cakewalk for China to weave a string of pearls. India’s Munroe Doctrine in South Asia and to lesser extent in the Vanilla Islands might crumble. Nobody will look towards an alleged weakling for protection. Chinese provocations are exactly designed to achieve the same.
As in economics, stated preference is all about rhetoric but the revealed preference lies in the action. The world evaluates through signals in the absence of information and the signals are best chosen by the preferences one chooses to exercises than a preference merely verbal. If India is not keen on responding appropriately, it would not be the world’s concern unless India requests their help a la 1962 for which there would be a price to pay. India’s counter action would be a signal of India’s level of tolerance. A superpower must be in a position to scale up the response without a fear of fatalities. In fact, the superpower status of US or Britain in the past arose because of their willingness to provide for global security goods. If India has to stand up to China, this disposition has to manifest itself. As one awaits India’s response, it must be pointed out that the signal it conveys is the most paramount. It’s not about the manner in which India responds, but what signal it conveys to the rest of the world of India’s tolerance, intentions, ability to cause impairment to enemies and the willingness to do so will determine the India’s place in global power calculus.
Thoughts on Theory and Practice 