The stalemate between the government and the protesting farmers seems to continue with little end in sight. It does not seem about the protection of farmers per se but about protection of the existing system which finds itself in threat from the new farm bills. Interestingly but not surprisingly, the protests continue to be dominated by farmers from Punjab with some bit of scattering from Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The farmers from the rest of the country seem to keep away from the agitation barring some minor noises. The farmer groups from Punjab are adamant on the withdrawal for the three bills. The government while seemingly agreeing to bring in few amendments which would anyway would have been factored in while framing the bills are in no mood to concede the primary demand. As such the talks are unlikely to reach a decisive conclusion. The strategy for the government would be to wear the farmer groups out while the farmer groups want to create a Shaheen Bagh while building up global pressure through their constituencies in UK and Canada to force the government on the back foot. Meanwhile the right wing groups which at the drop of the hat would invoke Margret Thatcher’s handling of the coal strike are developing cold feet and seem to find some fault or the other on the government part in handling the crisis. It is unlikely that the social media right wing has sufficient nerves to last the prolonged agitation. Their demands swing from absolute ruthless crushing of the movement towards complete withdrawal of the bills depending on their mood.
At this critical point, some give and take will always happen but in the current situation, it does not seem to move towards such a scenario. There seems to be developing a game of chicken which could cost the Punjab economy and society bit heavy in case it continues. The farmer battles are being led by Jat Sikh groups and given their dominance mostly by brute force, it is likely a counter-consolidation might emerge. Punjab and Haryana, thanks to the late 1960s agrarian structure are biggest beneficiaries of MSP and have little incentive to shift away from paddy or wheat, the two predominant crops grown over there. It is in this context, that the government must make some smart counter-moves. The protestors are expecting a crackdown or mass arrests. They perhaps want to recreate or are prepared mentally for the morchas which were the feature in the pre-Operation Bluestar days of Punjab. The government of the day had made a mistake of mass arrests which boomeranged on them. The government must resist such action at this moment. The government moves must be aimed at those who are likely to benefit from the schemes and must exclude the middle men or the protestor groups. Yet it must be difficult for the protestor groups to reject the proposals.
The proposals must begin with the MSP issue. The government must be accept it will buy at MSP. It should be ready to incorporate it some legislative form or the other. But there must be a rider. The government agencies, whether FCI or NAFED or any other will buy in equal proportion from all the states. Currently the MSP purchases are happening essentially in Punjab or Haryana where near 100% is sold at MSP. Secondly, the government must make it clear that the government agencies would buy directly from the farmer and credit the money to their accounts creating a direct benefit transfer (DBT) for MSP purchases. The government must make it clear it would not buy through the APMC or any other mandis. It might keep an option of GeM entering the mandi segment to create its own channel. Furthermore, the MSP purchases would happen for farmers owning let us say three acres or below. This would benefit small farmers, affect the middlemen aradhiyas and hit the structure of APMCs. Besides the MSP purchases in Punjab and Haryana will reduce. This will achieve the purpose of the government and perhaps put the protestors on the wrong foot. The protestors if they want MSP to be legislated must be prepared for these trade-offs.
The second proposal must lead to payment of social security to the farm labourers by large farmers. Farmers owing let us say 10 acres or more of land must provide social security to the farm labour whether migrant or local. The social security can include ESI and EPF thus bringing farm sector into the formal fold. This would be of considerable import to the labour which by and large come from states like Bihar and work in agricultural fields in Punjab or Haryana. The fact that protestors can afford to sit in Delhi during the busy rabi season is indicative of the absentee landlordism and the migrant labour presence in the field. This obviously would lead to the next stage of farm taxation. The farm taxation or agricultural income tax might have to wait for some more time but this could be the beginning stage. The beginning could be done by taxing all non-agriculturists who are buying agricultural land thanks to the reforms that are happening in many states.
It is also important that the title of agricultural lands must be established. There should be a proposal to link agricultural land to Aadhar and thus establish titles and eliminate the benami ownership rampant in the segment. Moreover, it would not be bad idea of invoking some obscure laws of the 1950 and 1960s to take away land from these absentee landlords and hand them to the tillers. In other words, Operation Barga must happen in Haryana and Punjab. Given the BJP government in Haryana, it is possible to execute this, something that the Left will find very difficult to oppose unless they disown their scheme in Bengal.
These proposals will meet newer challenges but would send a message that the government would not succumb to the blackmail and instead ready to tackle the large farmers. There is no doubt, the economies of scale would be impacted in the short run but with Uberization of agricultural equipment and technology underway, the scale might not necessarily become a critical element in the success of agriculture. The process of Uberization might propel agriculture to higher growth with reduction in capital costs and conversion of the same into operational expenditure. There might be many other methods to tackle the movement but important is to result in unpredictability in the minds of the protestors.
Thoughts on Theory and Practice 