US Presidents at the end of their tenure usually engage in sorting out distant global problems and at times certain global implications for domestic constituency. President Carter spent his last days negotiating release of the US hostages held in Iran, President Bush Sr. spent his last days in office firing rocket missiles at Iraq and so on. To President Trump as he demits office after his defeat, he is engaged in redrawing the political relationships in the Middle East and Maghreb. On the eve of elections, US negotiated the breakthrough in the relationship between Israel and UAE soon followed by restoration of diplomatic relationship between Israel and Bahrain. Meanwhile Israel under the US prodding, resumed normal relationship with Sudan, the reward for Sudan ostensibly being it getting large quantum of aid from US besides being removing the list of terror sponsors and sanctions. Morocco in exchange for recognition of its annexation of Western Sahara agreed to normalize the relationship with Israel. Oman is expected to follow suit shortly. Saudi Arabia is preparing the ground for diplomatic recognition of Israel and expected to be followed by the remaining Arab countries.
The Arab world has had a backchannel relationship with Israel for pretty long. There have been contacts and secret visits between the countries. There is obviously a common enemy in Iran which is perhaps bringing them together. Iran and Israel enjoyed warmth during the rule of Shah but after his ouster, the Islamists have vowed to eliminate Israel from the face of the earth as they call it. They continue to back groups like Hezbollah which are anti-Israel. Interestingly, during the Iran Iraq war of the 1980s, the Iranian Islamists were not averse to buying weapons from Israel and US which exploded as the Contra deal in the US in the second Reagan administration. Interestingly, Turkey continues to have diplomatic relationship with Israel despite frosty ties and sparring that happens frequently. Egypt established its relationship with Israel in 1978 after the Camp David accord while Jordan established one in the negotiations of 1992-93 leading to the Oslo accords. As an aside, away from these media glare, Israel and Bhutan decided to establish relationship in their talks in Delhi. To Bhutan, generally a recluse in international politics, Israel is only among the 50 odd countries it has established a relationship with.
Israel had shared a backchannel relationship with many Islamic countries. In fact, Israel is relatively secure at its borders because of these relationships. The Palestinian issue is more of a lip service. Hardly any Islamic country is interested in securing a state for Palestine. Many Arab countries in fact a possible takeover of Palestine by Hezbollah which is backed by their rival Iran. In this context, apart from making symbolic noises, they prefer to remain silent. When Palestine was created along with Israel, it never became a separate country. The eastern parts remained under control of Jordan including the city of Jerusalem while the western parts in the Gaza remained under the control of Egypt. It is Gamal Abdul Nazeer whose enmity with Israel led to the frequent Arab Israel wars that led to severe losses in the Arab world. Away from the Arab world, another relationship that Israel sought to have was a recognition from Pakistan. Reports suggest the Pakistan is preparing the ground for recognising Israel. Certain press reports and media coverage point towards Pakistanis softening their people for establishing the relationship with Israel. Given the demonization these Islamic countries have built up on Israel, it is difficult for them to convince their population on the need to engage with Israel. Saudis have already began their process, and it seems Pakistan is following suit.
Yet in the current world, while it would be big deal for Israel to get recognised by Pakistan, the importance has been relatively lost thanks to the first mover advantage of UAE and possibly Saudi Arabia. It now looks Pakistan is following suit of its Arab masters than seeking to carve an independent path which it thought of a decade and half ago. Whenever, Israel-India relations seemed to take off, Pakistan through calculated leaks would hint at a possible Israeli recognition. This would make Israel take a step back or two to keep Pakistan in good humour. Israel and Pakistan have maintained a long standing backchannel relations from days of the Afghan war. Israeli intelligence did collaborate with Mujahideen groups waging war against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Yet Pakistan could never come out in the open on its equations with Israel. When Israel India relations began to build up in the 2000s, Gen. Musharaf, the Pakistani dictator of the time, did broach the idea of Pakistan’s formal recognition of Israel. The deal of course would have involved Israel at least remaining ambiguous on Kashmir if not complete support to Pakistan. As the trial balloons were floated, Israeli response to Indian overtures on Kashmir were indeed lukewarm. They were not ready to take an outright stand against Pakistan to ensure a possible deal with Pakistan. Yet the Pakistani deal never came about. It might have been a tactic to keep Israel off India. Without doubt, the pressure of the clergy in Pakistan would have been too strong for any break in the foreign policy towards Palestine.
Pakistan in those days of decade and half or so ago did have a sense of importance in Israeli policy makers. To them, Pakistani recognition would have worth far higher than any strengthening of relationship with India. While India no doubt was important, Israel was sandwiched in Islamic world and shunned at large by its Islamic neighbours close and distant. It needed to break the mould of being anti-Islam thus Pakistan would have played a critical role in this calculus. This is also why Israel’s position on issues dear to India like Jammu and Kashmir was not very forthright and preferred to follow the Western path which was softer towards Pakistan. Yet as Pakistan prepares its ground to deal with Israel on a formal basis, the times have changed. UAE recognising Israel was a game-changer and possibly Saudi is following suit. If and when Pakistan recognises Israel, it would be seen as biding the master than an independent approach. Moreover, in the last few years or so, India Israel equations have grown multi-fold and are unlikely to be impacted by its approach to Pakistan. Israel may not concede much to Pakistan as it does not command the same stature as it did decade or so ago at least in the Israeli calculus. Therefore, while no doubt, Israel would welcome the same, it is unlikely Pakistan will get much in return. The opportunity for Pakistan to extract surplus to the core from Israel in relation to India has long gone by.
Thoughts on Theory and Practice 