India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has brought out with erudition, the challenges of post-COVID diplomacy in this Newsweek article published recently. As the piece points out, it is about reimagining diplomacy in a world that is being shaped by the COVID experience. He argues that in a multi-polar world, the common paradigms through which one saw the rest of the world would have to give way to a new set of thinking. For a generation or more, the thinking in global outlook has been shaped by the process of globalization. It is in the economic sense that one has observed an integration of the global countries, economies and polity. At some level, the integration does move beyond into societies but this too is underpinned by the economic logic as the processes and people and goods flow across countries and continents. As the Foreign Minister points out, the pure economic driven globalization would have to be re-thought as the world begins to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the considered opinion of the Indian foreign minister, three challenges health, climate change and terrorism stare at us as we are in 2021. Rather than military, intelligence, culture or economy, the global security policies would be dictated by health concerns and keeping their population safe. As the pandemic from China has demonstrated, in a globalized world, there is very little to protect from something happening in distant lands. In this context, there would emphasis on health security. In fact, the fights for medicines and vaccines and the way countries have ‘stolen’ medicines and vaccines meant for other countries towards their own benefit illustrate the gravity of the crisis. India despite its large population, something where social distancing cannot be enforced has come to the rescue both through its medical supplies and as also the vaccines. Indian made vaccines are now available all over the world. The ‘Vaccine-Maitri’ will leverage India’s soft power though the means it might do so would have to be awaited.
The economic downturn of COVID is underscored by the fact the supply chain systems are fragile. There is an increasing need to de-risk the supply chains. Given the over-exposure, the redundancies have to be developed. As the world recovers, it would be interesting to see how supply chains get transformed. Furthermore, the supply chain risks would be mapped differently and would factor the possible health security calculus. There would be increasing probability of the firms seeking to balance cost-equations with the health security equations.
India has taken on a proactive role in negotiating Paris accord and its emphasis on combating climate change. As the EAM Jaishankar points out, India is increasingly pushing for renewables as key source of domestic energy. He makes his case stressing the expansion of bio-diversity cover, increases water utilization, enhanced forest cover among other things. India’s soft power in environmental front have assumed shape through the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilience Infrastructure. This is in contrast to the previous Indian stands. India has generally been standing on the opposite pole in global negotiations rather than being proactive in shaping the contours of the negotiations. From a perennial rebel to someone at the high seat finalizing the accord is some journey for the Indian policy makers.
The Foreign Minister is vociferous on terrorism and the need to end that. India for long has been a victim of cross-border terrorism and thus gains to stand most. India, he stresses, will continue to fight in multilateral forums including the UN Security Council where it has begun its term as a non-permanent member. While he talks about India’s inclination to continue to press for the issues like terrorism in UNSC etc., he laments the failure of the multilateral institutions to combat the pandemic. Without naming so, he obviously draws the attention to the World Health Organization (WHO) which has come in for sharp criticism for its role in the pandemic. It virtually abdicated its role and became a stooge of China in its cover up of the pandemic in the initial stages. Aside of WHO, the United Nations too has come short of the crisis. There has not been a single meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the crisis that has engulfed the entire universe. The UN General Assembly too has been a mute spectator, something that reflects the Chinese influence in these organizations. Given China’s veto power in the UNSC, it is but obvious that any discussion on COVID would be blocked by China. It would be therefore instructive to see how India shapes up its plan for the post COVID multilateral order. Just as the World War II created a new global architecture, there is an increasing possibility of the post COVID architecture that might emerge on the global horizon.
To the foreign minister, the power of the digital domain has been one of the key takeaways of the COVID experience. On the health front, the digital tools facilitated contact tracing across the world. Yet at a humanitarian level, the financial and food support would not have been possible without the digital tools that have been mastered. The cash transfers to the poor would not have been possible without the JAM trinity that was implemented post 2014. The same JAM trinity helped in ensuring free ration to people during the pandemic times. While countries struggled with existence, there was hardly any case where Indians were short of food. Every Indian was fed thanks to the digital power harnessed.
Given the return of large number of Indians roughly 4 million from abroad, this underscores the mobility that is at play and the need for India to harness its talent advantage. To the foreign minister, the world would shift to something that would be multipolar, pluralistic and rebalanced. This would be of considerable interest given it reflects Indian expectations and thus the contours of the policy would be oriented towards the same. While multipolar world would indicate the balance of power would not lie with a few, yet there would be numerous challenges as India seeks to emerge as a pole in itself. There is no doubt of a rebalancing power equations yet it would not be quick affair. The shift would in all probability drag for quite a bit of time. Yet India needs to be prepared for the same. The foreign minister’s views indicate India’s thinking on the same and thus is of critical import.
Thoughts on Theory and Practice 