The previous post “India’s Vaccine Policy: Gamble or Knot” tried to dissect the dilemma in which the India policy makers find themselves in as the country is facing the second wave of the Wuhan pandemic. Apparently, the quest for Atmanirbhar made Indian fall back upon their domestic options to counter the coronavirus causing the Chinese pandemic. It suited well as long as there were cases that were experiencing a fall. The demand for vaccines too was muted as people did not seem to be in a hurry to get vaccinated. Yet as the fury of the second wave is being unleashed, more and more people want to get vaccinated. Reports of vaccination shortages are heard from many parts of the country. The production capacity is limited. There are only two options at the moment. The quantum of the production they are able to undertake has to be managed. The firms have commitment for exports. In fact, Serum Institute was to export nearly 50% of its production as part of the COVAX alliance. It might seemingly find itself in a litigation and other hassles in case of failure to meet the commitments. Therefore the government at this moment must seek other options.
There are others in the pipeline but there is an added uncertainty. The Russian vaccine Sputnik V is in its final stages of clearance but held up due to issues in cold chain management. This is something beyond comprehension, as it is not something newly discovered. There existed enough time for the manufacturers and the government to have worked out a plan all these days. India was not enthusiastic about Pfizer or Moderna again because of their cold chain requirements. Yet there was no reason why India should not have allowed them into the domestic market. There is of course single dose vaccine Johnson and Johnson which is apparently in talks with the government apart from Novovax which is running a bridge trial in the country. There are few domestic candidates but the uncertainty remains over the likelihood of them materializing in the market anytime soon.
At this stage, these is considerable pressure on the government to increase the vaccination pace. It might prove to be the albatross on the neck of the Modi government. It is in the vaccination front that they might face their political setbacks. All aspects of handling of the Corona crisis so far might come to a naught in case of a vaccine policy turning into a chaos and failure. The government should have anticipated the worst case scenario and prepared for the same. The government has consistently tried for short term solutions hoping that the pandemic will run itself out. It must realize that the pandemic will be over only when the entire population of 140 crore or so in India are vaccinated. Any other thought is essentially a delusion or hallucination. The sooner the government comes out of this breaking the chain trap it would be better for it. There is no alternative to vaccinate the entire population if it has to make the chain irrelevant.
PM Modi did give a pep talk in the Chief Ministers’ meeting but the pep talk too will have its own set of diminishing returns. These motivational measures are for very short term. He has to realize the long term solution is the mass vaccination of Indian population. There has to be a realization that the current vaccination trends are relatively slower for the Indian population. There is no doubt that India is vaccinating close to half a million every day, the highest in the world. Yet, it has to be tempered with reality that India has to populate 140 crore people. Only perhaps China stands similar to our state, yet given the opaque information from there, very little is known about China, its vaccines and their efficacy. Incidentally, Chinese vaccines are linked to geo-political blackmail as Paraguay found itself recently. At this stage without compromising on the exports and India’s global commitments, India must devise a new strategy. The strategy will have to lie in the India’s ability to vaccinate in world. The mantra would have to be ‘Produce in India’. Irrespective of vaccine being developed, India should encourage their production in India. Be it any vaccine manufacturer, they must be coaxed to produce in India. Exports would happen from India. As vaccine output increases, there would be increased availability as also for the exports as part of Vaccine Maitiri and other initiatives.
India should allow for expedited approval for vaccines that are currently available abroad. The only condition should be they must manufacture in India. The government can provide productivity linked incentives something on the lines it is providing in other industries. There can be a provision for some exports on commercial basis and some based on the Indian foreign policy priorities. There is anyways a planned demand for those who are vulnerable and is being met currently through the government run subsidized vaccine program. Outside this program, the government must allow the private sector to enter into play. The hospitals and firms must be allowed to directly negotiate and purchase vaccines from the manufacturers. As one is aware, demand would create its own supply. The current round of cajoling and coaxing must stop. The vaccinations must be made mandatory. The firms would make mandatory for their employees to take vaccines when they become available. Thus the coverage by itself would increase significantly.
There might be hurdles in negotiations but the government has to speed it up. There is no doubt that India would be on backfoot at this moment, but nothing is more paramount than national health. The government must realize that neither social distancing nor masks would carry the favor even in the mid run. The very images of political rallies with zero to little masks would be a strong counter argument. If the leadership cannot lead by example, they cannot expect people to stick to the norms. The only alternative is mass vaccination. Irrespective of the past, the time has come to unleash it on a large scale. The forty lakhs per day is definitely impressive but hardly of utility in the context of India’s population size. The time is to position as Vaccines Made in India and go for the kill. The time is running out.
Thoughts on Theory and Practice 