The Prime Minister Narendra Modi yet again addressed the nation in the midst of the battle with the Chinese pandemic. It is the second such address during the second wave of the pandemic while he has addressed quite a few occasions during the first wave. The previous address in the second wave was more a pep talk as he tried he enthuse the people in fighting the pandemic. There was no doubt that the government had lost the plot and seemed clueless in handling the pandemic deadly second wave. The government had made series of errors which compounded the problem. There was no doubt that the reputation which Modi enjoyed suffered a setback. Contrary to the criticisms levied on the government, the one policy where they were got lost was the vaccine policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of seeking Atmanirbhar did cost the country quite a bit. Certain concessions which are now offered to the private players from abroad could have been offered earlier. In fact the second wave reduced the bargaining power of the Centre vis a vis the major vaccine producers like Pfizer among others.
The solution to expand the vaccine coverage to the mass public rather than age restricted approach perhaps was worse than a solution thought of. The unintended consequences ensured things became chaotic. While there was semblance of order in the process despite it being very slow, chaos filled the process the net result being many could get vaccination. One has to measure how many lives were lost because of the inability to gain vaccine thanks to the fumbling of the governments both at Centre and the States. In a shift from a centralized procurement, the states were given freedom to procure vaccines to the extent of 25% of the total, which they could use to vaccinate those below 45. This meant that states had to individually negotiate with the vaccine producers creating a loss of bargaining power. It also meant that those below 45 would not get vaccines in time because the centre deemed they were not vulnerable. It is of course a travesty that lives were lost for this mindset of the centre along with it creating policies that put up stumbling blocks at each level for the states. As discussed in the previous posts, if the centre had no intention of vaccinating below 45, it could have indicated to the states quite early enabling them to plan their procurement better. The centre perhaps had to reverse its decision because of the adverse orders of the Supreme Court or perhaps because of the growing pressure from the states.
It must be conceded that the states were the first one to move and demand decentralization of vaccine procurement. This demand had gained traction particularly in late March and early April. The opposition too was keen on the same with leading opposition figures writing to the Prime Minister on the same. Furthermore, the media was virtually unanimous (there might have been an exception or two) in demanding decentralization of procurement. In their view, it was the states that had to be given the freedom to run the vaccination campaigns as much as they should get the freedom in containing the virus. The second wave that was rearing its head was adding to the pressure on the central government to open up the process for more age groups. This lead to the central government agreeing to the demands of the state and allowing them to procure the vaccines. In other words, the Modi government had called the bluff of the states. No doubt, the government had succeeded in this round of battles between the state and the centre. The decentralization and the federalism have gone for a walk with the process back with the centre. The states could not handle the current scenario ostensibly because of short supplies and had begun demanding the centre take back the process. Modi has scored one up over the states especially the opposition ones including Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala among others.
The question yet remains on the wisdom of this strategy. There was an attempt to fix the blame on the centre for the response on the second wave. It was apparently deemed that the states had they been allowed to procure vaccines independently would have ensured greater vaccination reach. Modi called the bluff and they were found wanting. It was evident that there was some hint of implicit schaudenfreude on the part of the Centre in the state’s inability to procure vaccines. In any national battle, there is bound to be different views. One does not really subscribe to calling each other’s bluffs in the midst of the crisis and resorting to a sort of one-upmanship. In fact, the error was evidently in minimizing the vaccine waste. At least the government should have come out and allowed walk-ins to be given vaccines if there were to be unutilized vaccines at the end of the day. This was something used with good effect in Israel earlier this year. There was no reason why such a strategy would not work in India. If the states were to be given 25%, the centre could have allocated this 25% and asked the states to reserve this for those below forty five years of age. The Centre could have suggested 50% reservation for those above 45% and the remaining opened up for everyone. This would have the kept the process on going and further reduce the uncertainty. At a time when the vaccination process should have picked up miles, the story was bogged down by the political bickering between the two key constituents of our federal structure.
The process would have been smooth had everybody played to their strengths. The process was going smooth. If it lacked something it was the flexibility. As said before too, there was strong obstinacy from the centre which it tried to resolve through transfer of burden to the states knowing it would not work. There was no need for such kind of a strategy in the first place. There was no doubt, the process had to be expanded to all age groups but certainly not the manner in which it was done. There is a correctional course in the PM’s address today. Hopefully, it would be a case of better late than never.
Thoughts on Theory and Practice 